A nightmare on fantasy street, continued…

Last week I visited which players you could still pick up in most Fantasy leagues and which ones possibly would be worth picking up. I followed my own advice a bit too far and frankly did appalling. But that would be my fault for starting three flex players instead of someone sensible at WR 1 & 2. So we without further ado, onto some more wide receivers, tight ends and defences (kickers are easy to drop and change). Let’s do this.

Again I will be using the mean as my average (sum all the numbers then divide by the number of numbers used) and the 95% confidence interval (as in 95% confident that future scores will be within so many points of the mean). This will be reported as 95% of games (OG).

To start with, though, Eric Decker has seen a 0.5% drop in ownership and therefore may be available on the waiver wire in your league. I’m not sure why he has been dropped, his fantasy score last week was his second lowest yet, but he still averages 9.62pts/game +/-4.63pts 95%OG. Go for the snaffle!

Ok so the NFL.com/fantasy put up each week who to pick up off the waiver wire. To finish off wide receivers we’ll start there.

On the waiver wire, Jason Smith et. al start off with Percy Harvin just because he could be handy in the fantasy post season.  As he is still recovering from hip surgery and has not played, I cannot make a comment apart from, yeah maybe worth taking but be warned it could be too little too late in some cases. The next player they discuss is Reuben Randle (av. 79.1% of leagues (OL)) and they suggest you should pick him up and indeed you should. With an average of 8.55pts/game +/-6.51pts 95%OG then he has the potential to score very well each week. But there is a large degree of variability there and he does miss catches, though he hasn’t fumbled, yet.

Onto Joseph Randle, though a running back is worth a mention. WIth DeMarco Murray out for a bit, Randle has been taking on first team reps during practice. He score 9.2pts in his first outing against the Redskins. He is available in 70.1% OL so probably worth a look in if you are in need of some RB depth.

Then they go onto quarterbacks and kickers (though I love kickers I am not going to talk about them).

As the Legaue of Gridiron Gentlemen is a 14 team league it makes it tough to pick up good available players of the waiver wire. One that is available is Riley Cooper. In both fantasy and in season performance has been a bit up and down but Foles liked him last week and as Foles is starting again, Cooper could be worth a look in. With an average of 6.51pts/game +/-5.55 95%OG he is a bit of a risk.

Let us revisit my ‘favourite’ Donnie Avery (av. 92.7%OL). I felt he was a good pick up, but as soon as a player posts negative fantasy points you have to be wary.  Yes the way he has been scoring seems to indicate that he will score well in week 7. Be warned his average has dropped from 7..32 to 5.82 pts/game +/- 4.43 pts 95%OG, high variability warning!

Well this is a nice surprise, Brandon Gibson is still available in 99.6% and he averages 5.64 pts/game +/-2.43 pts 95%OG, how lovely and consistent as a flex position. Yes he won’t set any team on fire but he does have tendency of getting 7pts per game, tidy.

Jeremy Kerley is available in 99.6% of leagues and appears due to a highish projected score. But is he worth it? Scoring an average 4.68pts/game +/-3.64 95%OG probably not, there are certainly better flex options out there.

Hang on what’s this I just found, Brandon LaFell is still available in 27.2% of leagues! Is he worth snaffling up? Well he isn’t that consistent, he can get big scores (17.3 and 17.6 pts respectively) but he averages only 6.82 pts/game +/- 6.73 pts 95%OG so is a risky WR2 and is best as a WR3.

Marvin Jones (av. 99.5%OL) is sat at 52nd in season WR fantasy points rankings. We are in the depths of the flex and back up positions here. But Jones could be worth picking up, averaging 6.4pts/game +/- 4.85pts 95% OG.

So last mention on wide receivers is Michael Floyd, who is still available in 42.4% OL, how handy. Indeed, especially as he averages 6.8 pts/game +/- 2pts 95%OG. Ok so he is no use now for week 7 but if he is available might as well get a request now ready for week 8!

Tight ends

Most leagues will only play one TE but in some leagues they can be played as a flex position. There is a dearth of top scoring TE (there is almost a 20pt drop between 4th and 5th ranked TEs) so it is not always easy to get one that would do better than some of the WRs. This does not mean there are no gems waiting to be plucked from the wire. Being slightly lazy I perused who was still available and was surprised to find Scott Chandler, ranked 12th in season point scores, is still available in 95.6% OL.  He averages 6.18pts/game +/- 4.01pts 95%OG, comparing nicely with, even more consistent than, Jared Cook who averages 6.85pts/game +/- 6.85pts 95%OG.

Joseph Fauria is available in 85%OL still, though could be considered a risky option considering the number of games where he has scored nil points. He averages at 6.1pts/game +/- 6.72pts 95%OG so fluctuates from big scores to nothing pretty consistently.

Garrett Graham (av. 78.9% OL) is a similar story, though without the same high variability in scoring. He currently averages 5.77pts/game +/-4.11 pts 95%OG, though it is likely he will not score well against the Chiefs tough defense.

Further down the total score rankings the variability, or inconsistency, in scoring increases. Many of the players are comparable to a WR3 position, though with a greater degree of fantasy point scoring inconsistency. Here are a pick few:

Dallas Clark, available in 95.3% OL scoring an average of 5.27pts/game +/- 4.26pts 95% OG. Not that dissimilar to Garrett Graham and certainly has a better match up against the Steelers. Scored 14.1 points last week which knocked up his average;

Colby Fleener, available in 73.5%OL, scores an average of 5.28pts/game +/- 4.98pts 95% OG. Could score well against the Broncos, who are not that good at stopping the passing game just excellent at stopping the rush;

Lance Kendricks, available in 99.6% OL, currently averages 5.15 pts/game +/-2.3 95% OG, showing possibly more potential as a viable flex option than many of the above, scoring more consistently around the average (though only top scoring with 9.7pts in week 5);

Brent Celek, available in 89.6% OL, seems to appear in peoples lists of TEs to acquire but should he be? Against the Broncos, he managed 5.7pts, above his average of 5.13pts/game +/-4.04pts 95%OG so it is reasonable to expect a similar score against the Cowboys. So yeah why not swoop down on him if he’s available.

Last on the list, all within the top 25 scoring TEs, is Delanie Walker (av. 98.5%OL). I may have saved the best to last. Yes he only averages 5.08pts/game but with 95% of his weekly scores within 1.41pts this surely makes him a tidy player to have on the bench to play as back up TE or even flex. Ok so he may not score highly but at least he is more likely to score over 3pts than some of the others.


My current favourite study are teams defences and I am trying to figure out, bar the Kansas City Chiefs, which defence is best, though not in fantasy terms. Incidentally the most influential factor in determining the fantasy points of the Def are the number of points allowed. Of course number of touchdowns the special teams and defences score help, but on a weekly basis, it’s how few points they can allow. Generally it is possible to chop and change defenses weekly but it is worth keeping a good team on each week.

The Chiefs and the Seahawks are owned pretty well in all leagues (though the Chiefs weirdly, are still available in 14.3% OL).  But the next team down are the Titans and they are still available in a whopping 80.9% OL! The Gridiron Gentlemen have talked in our podcasts and in our Power Rankings about how good the Titans defense is and this is echoed in their fantasy value, averaging 11.83pts/game +/- 5.17 pts 95%OG.  Admittedly as defence scores are whole integers (i.e. never a decimal) you can round up or down as appropriate. Read this as just under 12 pts per game.

There are still quite a few teams in the top 10 scoring defences available. The Cowboys are still available in nearly 53%OL and the Colts are available in a staggering 86.3% OL. Both are good picks, the Cowboys average 10.83pts/game +/-7.16pts 95%OG and the Colts average 10.33pts/game +/- 5.63pt 95%OG though I suspect this score will go down after playing the Broncos (as a Colts fan this is a bit depressing but I am still going to play the Colts).

Interestingly the Rams (av. 75.7%OL) sit up at number 9 above even the Ravens and Bengals. This is partly due a large score against the Texans last week and they have had a bit of a consistent run of scoring just 2pts (due to conceding over 30pts in consecutive weeks). So they average 9.83pts/game +/- 8.61 pts 95%OG, indicating they are a bit of a risk, but may have a good day against the Panthers this week. And talking of the Panthers, their defence has been rated highly as one of the toughest and this is reflected in their fantasy value. They are available in 80.4%OL and average 11.2pts/game +/- 6.09pts 95%OG. This is impressive and makes the Panthers a better prospect than the Cowboys and the Colts.

A slightly lower scoring but still quite a good proposition are the Detroit Lions, who are available in 88.9%OL and average 8.5pts/game +/-3.98pts 95%OG, so they are pretty consistent and have the potential to score big.

So that is that for this week, good luck to all in all fantasy leagues. If you have any fantasy related questions, ask us on our Gridiron Gentelmen Facebook page or email us at hellochaps@gridirongentlemen.com. Keep checking this website, our twitter feed (@GridironGents) and our Facebook page for updates on what is going on in the NFL.

Until next time, when I may cover kickers.