Best Bets: Week 4

Where do I start? Last week turned into a disaster – 0-3 with two heartbreakers.

I’ve re-watched the Jaguars game and I still don’t know how Jacksonville managed to throw that one away. Then we get to the Chargers game. All they had to do was keep them out of the end zone. A field goal is fine; the Colts would win the game but we still win with the points. But no, T.Y. Hilton scored a 63-yard touchdown with 1:17 left on the clock to put an end to a terrible week of picks. But I’m over that and we move on to this week.We’re sitting at 3-6 on the season but we can pull some of that back with four picks this week including an extra pick in the International Series game.

Browns +7.5 @ Redskins

I know the Redskins beat a decent Giants team last week and I know the Browns are the Browns, but I just can’t give 7.5 points to Kirk Cousins right now. Despite a couple of awful interceptions thrown by Eli Manning, the Redskins only just snuck by last week.

The Browns lost to the Dolphins thanks to some awful kicking, but it was a second week in a row where they have been right in the game and really should have won. Terrelle Pryor had a fantastic game throwing, rushing, receiving and he even played a snap at safety. He can carry some of that form into this week and be a big part of why the Browns can do well in this one.

I’m not going to say the Browns will win outright, but I like them to still be right in the game in the fourth quarter. The Redskins are 1-4 against the spread in their past five games. Give me the points.

Chargers -3.5 vs Saints

Despite last week’s disappointing loss, I still have faith in the Chargers. Before last week San Diego had won their previous six games against the spread and really should have made it seven (Ok, I’m over it.)

The Saints will have to travel to the west coast on a short week. They are already the worst team in the league against the rush, giving up almost 150 yards per game and I expect a big game from Melvin Gordon to lead San Diego to a win in the game and against the spread.

Lions -3 @ Bears

The Bears offence has really struggled so far this year. They currently sit at 27th in total offence and 30th in points scored. The Lions on the other hand are 4th in total offence and 5th in points scored with Marvin Jones leading the league in reception yards.

Without Calvin Johnson the Lions were expected to struggle a little on offence but with the workload being spread amongst players such as Jones, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron and running backs Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington, the Lions look a much more rounded team on that side of the ball.

I think the Lions will overpower the Bears who look destined to be picking right at the top of the draft.

In the past 12 meetings between these two NFC north teams the Lions are 9-3 against the spread.

Bonus Wembley game pick…

Colts -2.5 @ Jaguars

Two teams involved in last week’s picks that really should have gone the other way (I really am over it) meet at Wembley this week in the first of the International Series games.

The Jaguars were many people’s picks (including myself) to really make a jump forward this year but it looks like the same old problems. Blake Bortles still can’t seem to protect the ball. Bortles led the league in interceptions last season. He is behind just Ryan Fitzpatrick so far this season and Fitzpatrick threw six last week.

The Colts have their own issues but Andrew Luck is always going to give his team a chance to win and he should have enough to see of the Jaguars this week.

I may go back to picking the Jags next week when they have a new coach…

(I don’t think I’m over it)