Week 4 fantasy: no averages this week

Well the Gents teams went 2-2 in week 3 so some of my decisions did not really pan out. My problem is getting regular scoring running backs. I know I said last week I would start looking at means (a measure of averages) and I will try a few this week, my main focus will be looking into who to try and pick up as a running back and then a few other picks of the week. I did play Maxx Williams and Justin Forsett as I said I would on Facebook. One paid off, the other not quite as much. I also have a cautionary tale of waiver wire woe.

I do have some mean points per week, but some of those are, “this player will score you 5 points per week”. I suppose handy for a flex. But before that..

Those blasted top ten running backs just have not been scoring! Jeremy Hill,  C.J. Anderson and Justin Forsett have all been a huge disappointment fantasy wise and let us face it also on the field, all three struggling to get yards. Throw in that both Le’Veon Bell and Arian Foster have been or are still, out it leaves only 5 possible top backs to start. Do not be fooled by Hill, he has had one good week (week 3). Jamaal Charles is currently the top running back and his mean is 19.07 pts +/- 7.05 meaning he is 95% likely to score more than 12 points each week, purely because he is the Chiefs main target and ball carrier and he is just that good.

Joseph Randle is not as a good bet, despite currently being the 4th highest scoring RB, though his prospects are good against the weak Saints defence. His mean score so far is 15.23 pts +/- 13.22 meaning he could score as little as 2.1 pts this week.

What about one of the golden boys of last week, the Cardinals Chris Johnson (available in 60% of leagues)? He is benefiting from Andre Ellington’s absence. Saying that I have picked him up because Ellington is still out. He has been scoring 12.63 +/- 11.01 so yes he is a big risk but saying that probably as much of a risk as Hill, who has had a negative score.

Why am I mentioning the Bills’ Karlos Williams again? He is available in 53% of leagues and has been scoring a mean of 12.73 pts +/- 4.3 per week, well over the last three. Pick him up! Well worth starting! DO IT.

Marcel Reece in most of my leagues ranked as the top available running back. He is available in 98% of leagues. I know he is the number two back in Oakland, but they are up against the Bears and I think he could get some points. However he is a risk because though he has a mean of 7.27 points per game this comes with a +/- 7.53 points per week. Not very consistent and yes could score you negative points. Perhaps as a flex.

Tight ends

Moving onto tight ends (snigger snigger) another position hit this week, well if you have Gronk, but even Anthony Fasano has been quite handy (mean of 6.27 +/- erm 7.98), ok maybe not that handy. Anyway I want to mention Eric Ebron (again, available in 83% of leagues) as even though there are problems with the Lions, Matt Stafford being one of them, Ebron has been pretty solid in fantasy terms. His mean is 9.23 +/- 3.12 points per week and that is up against tough defenses (Broncos, Vikings and an at the time Chargers). He is showing consistency and so I think he is a pick to start, especially if you need a tight end.

QB-ware! A cautionary tale

Finally, a story of what happens when you are half asleep and try and pick up a back up quarterback from under the sheets. On of the Gents (they shall remain nameless) was needing a back up QB and saw who he thought was Matt Ryan available on the waiver wire. Wasting no time, the waiver request went in only to later find out that they had in fact picked up Matt Flynn. A terrifying prospect I am sure. Joe Flacco was hastily collected again .

Jets vs Dolphins

Personally I would play Brandon Marshall and the Jets defense this week. I am not so sure on the Dolphins front, maybe Jordan Cameron and Rishard Matthews (I like him). The Dolphins have been frustrating on offence but Matthews has a mean of 14.67 +/- 8.53 points per week. I have him in one league and you can have him in yours most likely as he is available in 63% of leagues. I think Ryan Tannehill could be a risk but this could also be the week he has a blinder. Actually even the other Ryan, Fitzpatrick could have a good week if you are in need of a back up QB as his mean is 14.68 +/- 1.87 and available in 97% of leagues. This is currently better than Andrew Luck.

This is a brief post, I am sorry for it being so late, I hope it is helpful. Hit us up with your questions on Facebook or twitter. Most importantly enjoy the games and good luck this week!

Toodle pip

@cptliceboy