What price Garoppolo?
Let’s talk about Jimmy Garoppolo and let’s talk specifically about Jimmy Garoppolo and the Cleveland Browns. I’ll start with the premise that sending their 12th overall pick to New England for Garoppolo would be madness, insanity of the highest order. Any team sending a first rounder to Foxboro for Garoppolo is hugely over paying. Let me put it this way:
• Matt Cassel
• Brian Hoyer
• Ryan Mallet
• Kliff Kingsbury
• Jacoby Brisett
• Kevin O’Connell
• Matt Guitierrez
The above list of woe is back up quarterbacks drafted by the Patriots while Tom Brady has been starting quarterback in New England. I’m not suggesting that Garoppolo is better or worse than any of this bunch, in fact two of them are pretty successful coaches so they obviously teach you something up there. It’s not a question of whether or not he’s better than them at all.
The point I’m getting at is that he was drafted 62nd overall, and he hasn’t yet thrown 100 NFL passes yet. That sample size is very small to suggest he’s added 50 picks worth of significant draft capital. Not moving from 200 to 150 capital, first round high cost capital. His stats and his play when he has seen the field has been very good but this is further skewed by the fact he’s playing for playing for the NFLs best team in a system known to be friendly to quarterbacks with quick passes out of the backfield and across the middle of the field.
The system in question also produced the other quarterbacks on that list and while Matt Cassel had some relative success he struggled to hold down a starting job. Brian Hoyer has steadily improved over he last 5 seasons (something to think about Bears fans, he may be worth re-signing) he has never started a whole season of games. Ryan Mallet didn’t have the brain to back up the talent and with regards to the rest, the less said about the better. None of these players left New England significantly improved, in fact some took a step backwards.
When calculating how much draft capital to spend on Garoppolo it’s a question of working out how far he is going to fall when he’s not playing for the reigning champions. If you’re the Cleveland Browns and If you’re desperate to sign him he’s going to fall far because with Terrell Pryor on the street at the moment and nobody else of any note to throw the ball at you’re going to look pretty stupid if you ditch a first rounder for him. Stupid enough to risk your job stupid.
I’ll say it too, I’m actually a fan of Cody Kessler, I find him easy to root for, he hasn’t thrown many Touchdowns, 6 in 9 games is disappointing but he’s careful with the football throwing just 2 picks and completing a respectable 65% of his passes. It makes more sense to me to roll with the sophomore or RG3 and stock up on as many talented players as possible. If possible trade backwards slightly from 12th overall and try and get some future draft capital for the 2018 draft. That capital can be spent moving around a deep quarterback draft next year, even with the best draft possible I’d still expect Cleveland to be picking high next year, so panicking in 2017 seems counterproductive.
There are some intriguing free agents that could be useful for 2017, Mike Glennon has shown flashes, Nick Foles is floating about. They offer significantly less risk than taking a punt on Garoppolo and would allow you to use your precious and hard earned high picks.
If the Browns are desperate for Garoppolo then I’d open the offering with the 52nd overall pick and a late rounder but I wouldn’t ditch a first rounder, history has two many warnings about Tom Brady’s backups.