NFL Mock Draft Scenarios 2015: The Mariota Effect

by Dan · April 28, 2015

My plan has always been to map out a crazy list of possible scenarios that could happen on draft day and look at how they affect the other teams in the draft. Obviously this is all just my opinion and the very list that it’s based on is a ‘fantasy’ list that I’ve concocted, so the actual accuracy of this is based on something that is wholly inaccurate. But it does show the situations teams could be put in just by a simple trade and the ripple effects it has right down the order. Before I get started, it’s worth noting that I would love your opinions on this so feel free to hit us up on twitter, even if it’s telling me this list is terrible. It’s worth noting that I do take people’s comments into consideration. For example I never thought to put Dorsett in a Ravens jersey until we did our communal mock draft, a pick that makes so much sense I can’t believe I didn’t see it and after a month of Dylan telling me that Mariota probably belongs in a Jets jersey I finally gave way, it does make a lot of sense. Anyway let’s get started, with a look at hypothetical scenarios based on a hypothetical list, time to break out the pictures and red string.

The whole thing will be split into 2 sections, which are the Mariota trades and well, everything else. So this piece will focus on the major players in moving up to pick up Marcus Mariota.

Before I get start on the crazy trades, here is my final mock draft:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Tennessee Titans: Leonard Williams, DT, USC
Jacksonville Jaguars: Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida
Oakland Raiders: Amari Cooper, WR, USC
Washington: Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
New York Jets: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Chicago Bears: Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
Atlanta Falcons: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
New York Giants: Alvin ‘Bud’ Dupree, OLB/DE, Kentucky
St Louis Rams: Brandon Scherff, OT/G, Iowa
Minnesota Vikings: La’el Collins, OT, LSU
Cleveland Browns: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
New Orleans Saints: Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
Miami Dolphins: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
San Francisco 49ers: Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon
Houston Texans: Devante Parker, WR, Louisville
San Diego Chargers: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
Kansas City Chiefs: Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
Cleveland Browns: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
Philadelphia Eagles: Landon Collins, S, Alabama
Cincinnati Bengals: Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
Pittsburgh Steelers: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
Detroit Lions: Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
Arizona Cardinals: D.J Humphries, OT, Florida
Carolina Panthers: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
Baltimore Ravens: Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami
Dallas Cowboys: Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut
Denver Broncos: T.J Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
Indianapolis Colts: Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
Green Bay Packers: Eric Kendricks, UCLA
New Orleans Saints: Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
New England Patriots: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest

The major changes I have made from my previous mock draft are mainly based around the offensive line, which I had ranked pretty high. Now aside from the 2 players that I believe are the best linemen, they are mostly going in the 20’s rather than the early teens. I’ve also moved Shane Ray down considerably. If the Red Flags about injuries weren’t enough, being arrested during draft week raises major question marks about the intelligence of the potentially elite edge rusher. In a draft where I believe there are 5 standout edge rushers, the black marks he has next to his name make him the least desirable. Where the likes of Ray and the offensive line players have moved down, there has been a few players move higher, of which the most notable is Todd Gurley. The more I watched Gurley, the higher I moved him and having the question mark over his injury seemingly removed makes him a potential top 10 prospect to me. Bud Dupree is another player that I appear to be late to join the band wagon of, but once again I think he could push himself into the top 10. So what effect would potential trades have on this Mock Draft, specifically in this post, what effect would teams moving up to pick up Marcus Mariota have.

Let’s go team by team.

Jets move up to 2.

To me it seems unlikely but not out of the question. GM Mike Maccagnan has been cagey about his draft plans and has not ruled out the chance to trade up. My question would be, what do they have to give up? Not a great deal, without mortgaging their future, which if Mariota didn’t work out would probably see the enigmatic GM out of a job within a year of getting it. If they were to trade up though, this is how I see it play out, teams in bold are changing picks:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
New York Jets: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Jacksonville Jaguars: Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida
Oakland Raiders: Amari Cooper, WR, USC
Washington: Leonard Williams, DT, USC
Tennessee Titans: Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
Chicago Bears: Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson

After this everything else pretty much stays as it is. If the Jets do move up I think picks 3 and 4 stay the same, Washington however are presented with the chance to pick up arguably the best player in the draft, which despite a lot of talk about them wanting to trade out of the position, I’ve got to believe that temptation gets the better of them. The Titans have a lot of needs, but perhaps the least desperate of them is at edge rusher, so maybe they reach a little and pick up a large, quick nose tackle. The Bears have needs across the board on defense, if Shelton isn’t available, maybe they go Kevin White, but to me a more desperate need is at edge rusher.

Bears move up to 2.

I think this is probably even less likely than the Jets moving up, but probably worth a mention. The only reason it might get done is that it is believed that the coaching staff wanted to pick up Cutler during the early stages of free agency, which is a potential bargaining chip for the Bears. My question would be, why didn’t they do it when the Bears were practically giving Cutler away? Trading a no. 2 pick for a QB that they could have picked up for next to nothing is surely a questionable move on a team that desperately needs a good draft. Never the less the rumours are there, so I believe if the unexpected does happen, it might look a little something like this:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Chicago Bears: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Jacksonville Jaguars: Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida
Oakland Raiders: Amari Cooper, WR, USC
Washington: Leonard Williams, DT, USC
New York Jets: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Tennessee Titans: Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
Atlanta Falcons: Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson

If the Bears move up to 2, the top 5 pretty much stay the same, but with the only difference being it’s the Bears at no. 2. Where it gets really interesting for me is at no. 6 where I steal fellow Gent, Dylan’s thought in that the Jets can fill an obvious need at running back by picking up an exceptionally talented running back, which I think is a pretty good consolation prize to the QB they want. The Titans still end up with Danny Shelton, which I maintain is a pretty good pick for the team. The Falcons however are then forced to take one of the very talented pass rushers, originally I had them taking Bud Dupree. Scherff could be another possibility for both the Titans and the Falcons.

Browns move up to 2.

If there is a trade for Mariota this gets my vote for being the most likely, simply because the Browns have more draft currency than any of the other teams in play to move up. Yes the Chargers have River and the Eagles have Bradford, but the Browns have draft picks, in particular 2 1st rd. draft picks, currency they could use to get better in the long term. As you can see, giving up the 2 draft picks to the Titans would have potentially changed a lot of team’s destiny, if it plays out as I’ve seen it.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Cleveland Browns: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Jacksonville Jaguars: Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida
Oakland Raiders: Amari Cooper, WR, USC
Washington: Leonard Williams, DT, USC
New York Jets: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Chicago Bears: Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
Atlanta Falcons: Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
New York Giants: Alvin ‘Bud’ Dupree, OLB/DE, Kentucky
St Louis Rams: Brandon Scherff, OT/G, Iowa
Minnesota Vikings: La’el Collins, OT, LSU
Tennessee Titans: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
New Orlean Saints: Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
Miami Dolphins: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
San Francisco 49ers: Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon
Houston Texans: Devante Parker, WR, Louisville
San Diego Chargers: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
Kansas City Chiefs: Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
Tennessee Titans: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas

Not a great deal of change. The top 10 stay the same, with the Jets picking up Gurley, the Bears still picking up Shelton and the Falcons still going edge rusher. I’ve assumed that the trade will involve the Browns having to give up both the 12th and 19th pick and genuinely I could see them taking the same players as the Browns. Kevin White gives Mettenberger, a fighting chance, especially compared to what the Titans are rolling with at the moment. Defensive tackle is still a need for the Titans, so picking up Malcom Brown makes a lot of sense. If Armstead is there I think they pick him up, but Malcom Brown is probably the best available defensive tackle at the no. 19 spot. There is a chance the Titans could go offensive line, especially with Mettenberger having something of an injury history and not being the most mobile of QBs. If the Titans come out of the 1st with both Brown and White, they will have done very well.

Chargers move up to 2.

The Chargers have probably been the most talked about team in regards to moving up to pick up Mariota, simply because of all the players that could be thrown at Tennessee, they have the best. My concern would be that the Titans might not want to move down that low.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
San Diego Chargers: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Jacksonville Jaguars: Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida
Oakland Raiders: Amari Cooper, WR, USC
Washington: Leonard Williams, DT, USC
New York Jets: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Chicago Bears: Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
Atlanta Falcons: Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
New York Giants: Alvin ‘Bud’ Dupree, OLB/DE, Kentucky
St Louis Rams: Brandon Scherff, OT/G, Iowa
Minnesota Vikings: La’el Collins, OT, LSU
Cleveland Browns: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
New Orlean Saints: Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
Miami Dolphins: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
San Francisco 49ers: Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon
Houston Texans: Devante Parker, WR, Louisville
Tennessee Titans: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
Kansas City Chiefs: Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
Cleveland Browns: Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut
Philadelphia Eagles: Landon Collins, S, Alabama
Cincinnati Bengals: Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
Pittsburgh Steelers: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
Detroit Lions: Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
Arizona Cardinals: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
Carolina Panthers: D.J Humphries, OT, Florida
Baltimore Ravens: Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami
Dallas Cowboys: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forrest
Denver Broncos: T.J Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
Indianapolis Colts: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
Green Bay Packers: Eric Kendricks, UCLA
New Orleans Saints: Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
New England Patriots: Jalen Collins, CB, LSU

With the lower down teams moving it affects an awful lot. If the Chargers aren’t taking Gordon, then he falls a bit to the Cardinals, who will be doing cartwheels to make that pick. The Browns would be denied Brown if the Titans move into the no. 17 pick and go for a defensive tackle and they’d be left with a big choice. Do they pick up either Marcus Peters or Shane Ray, both of which have multiple red flags, would they take a risk on picking up yet another potential 1st rd. bust, something that would almost certainly see Farmer lose his job. I don’t think they can take that risk and instead pick up Byron Jones. At this point I see the teams sticking with the picks they already had, with Arizona being the first team to buck the trend and as previously mentioned have a no. 1 running back fall into their lap. With Byron Jones gone, I could see the Cowboys picking up Kevin Johnson over Jalen Collins, which leaves the Patriots with Collins at corner, or fill another need. This also works out well for the Colts, who get some extra protection for Andrew Luck.

Eagles move up to 2.

Mariota going to the Eagles has been talked about for about a year now. But like the Chargers I’m not sure the Titans would want to move down this low. I get the feeling the Eagles might have to pay well over the odds, if the below is to happen. I don’t think a simple trade of Bradford plus pick will do.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Philadelphia Eagles: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Jacksonville Jaguars: Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida
Oakland Raiders: Amari Cooper, WR, USC
Washington: Leonard Williams, DT, USC
New York Jets: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Chicago Bears: Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
Atlanta Falcons: Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
New York Giants: Alvin ‘Bud’ Dupree, OLB/DE, Kentucky
St Louis Rams: Brandon Scherff, OT/G, Iowa
Minnesota Vikings: La’el Collins, OT, LSU
Cleveland Browns: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
New Orlean Saints: Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
Miami Dolphins: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
San Francisco 49ers: Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon
Houston Texans: Devante Parker, WR, Louisville
San Diego Chargers: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
Kansas City Chiefs: Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
Cleveland Browns: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
Tennessee Titans: Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
Cincinnati Bengals: London Collins, S, Alabama
Pittsburgh Steelers: Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
Detroit Lions: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
Arizona Cardinals: Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
Carolina Panthers: D.J Humphries, OT, Florida
Baltimore Ravens: Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami
Dallas Cowboys: Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut
Denver Broncos: T.J Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
Indianapolis Colts: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
Green Bay Packers: Eric Kendricks, UCLA
New Orleans Saints: Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
New England Patriots: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest

If the Titans trade with the Eagles, they’re in a prime position to start a run on offensive linemen. Landon Collins then becomes a curious luxury pick for the Bengals, with Pittsburgh questioning whether they can bring themselves to pick up Shane Ray. If he does actually fall this far though, you’ve have to think they’ve got to take a shot. This is another scenario that works out well for the Colts again, giving them a potential starter caliber tackle. I would hope the Titans get multiple draft picks in this situation as well as potentially Sam Bradford.

All of these trades are possible, but when you look at it, maybe the best thing the Titans can do is stay at no.2 and pick up the best player available. I can’t help but feel we’ll see them move out of the no. 2 spot, but the most interesting question is simply this.

How much are teams willing to give up to pick up an unproven QB?

I don’t know about you but I can’t wait to find out.